It is very important to note that estimated earnings displayed on minerstat dashboard and mining calculators are only theoretical estimations. They are not indicators of actual earnings but a reference point. To monitor actual earnings, you need to check your pool's website.
Mining is a process in which mining clients are searching for solution and sending shares to the pool and one of such solutions can be a block. In each block, there is a reward. For some coins this reward is fixed, while for others it holds the transaction fees as well. A block is find every few seconds or every few minutes - depending on the coin you mine - and in average, there is certain amount of blocks that are found in 1 hour and certain amount of blocks that are found in 1 day. The more miners are out there searching for block, the higher is network hashrate (total amount of hashrate that is mining that coin), the higher is difficulty, and the lower is reward.
Minerstat calculates estimated rewards based on current network hashrate, current difficulty, current block rewards (including transaction fees), and current price of the coin. These estimations are updated every few minutes and gets multiplied by the hashrate your mining client reports.
For some pools (F2Pool, Ezil, HiveOn, NiceHash, Mining Pool Hub, and others) we provide estimated rewards based on the estimated rewards they provide in their APIs.
Pool, on the other hand, calculates your estimated rewards based on the shares you sent them, shares difficulty, their luck, and their payout scheme. Pool will always show better estimations as their estimations depend on actual data that is happening on the pool, while minerstat's estimations depend on data that is happening on the network.
If you are mining to a PPLNS pool (such as Ethermine or 2Miners), keep in mind that you need to mine at least 24 hours for pool to show proper estimated earnings as these are based on the amount of blocks you have participated in.
If you are not mining 24/7 it might be more suitable to use PPS pool rather than PPLNS one. You can also read this article to learn on how to select pool for mining.
Also keep in mind how the estimations actually work. If your daily estimated earnings are 2 USD, this means monthly estimated earnings are 60 USD. If suddenly a block reward doubles because of the high transactions fees, your daily estimated earnings are suddenly showing 4 USD, which makes monthly estimated earnings 120 USD. This will again change in the next 10 minutes when there is new block reward.
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